| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Washington | 21-38 | 1424.7 | -10.7 | 1414.0 | 16.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Northern Colorado | 21-17 | 1414.0 | +0.0 | 1414.0 | 37.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | UTSA | 16-17 | 1414.0 | -46.6 | 1367.4 | 46.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Washington State | 3-20 | 1367.4 | -47.5 | 1319.9 | 47.9% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | San Diego State | 24-45 | 1319.9 | -33.4 | 1286.5 | 47.0% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | W | Fresno State | 49-21 | 1286.5 | +62.1 | 1348.6 | 21.2% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 19-31 | 1348.6 | -39.2 | 1309.4 | 38.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Wyoming | 0-28 | 1309.4 | -32.4 | 1277.0 | 45.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | UNLV | 10-42 | 1277.0 | -14.0 | 1263.0 | 12.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | New Mexico | 17-20 | 1263.0 | -15.3 | 1247.7 | 23.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Boise State | 21-49 | 1247.7 | -7.9 | 1239.8 | 12.3% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Air Force | 21-42 | 1239.8 | -39.4 | 1200.4 | 38.6% |